AP Statistics Unit 3 review: Inference for Categorical Data: Proportions
Unit 3 estimates and tests population proportions and compares categorical distributions. It is 15–25% of multiple choice in the revised course. Expect to choose an inference method, verify numerical conditions, calculate results and state a conclusion about the population rather than just the sample.
Unit 3 on the May 2027 exam
| 2027 exam | |
|---|---|
| Weight | 15–25% of the multiple-choice section |
| Exam date | Tuesday, May 11, 2027, afternoon session |
| Multiple choice | 42 questions in 90 minutes, worth 50% of the exam score |
| Free response | 4 questions in 90 minutes, worth 50%. All answers are entered in Bluebook: two multi-focus questions, one inference question and a final multi-focus question. |
| Calculator | A graphing calculator with statistical capabilities is expected on both sections. Bluebook includes Desmos graphing. Nongraphing handheld calculators are not allowed in 2027. |
| Class time | About 30 class periods in College Board's pacing guide |
| 2026 results | 17% of students scored a 5 on the whole exam, and about 62% scored 3 or higher |
Sources: College Board's course and exam description, exam page, 2027 exam dates and score distributions.
What Unit 3 covers
College Board's course description splits the unit into 15 topics. The second column is what you should be able to do for each one.
| Topic | What you should be able to do |
|---|---|
| 3.1 Estimators | Explain estimator bias and variability across repeated samples. |
| 3.2 Sampling Distributions for Sample Proportions | Calculate the center and spread of a sample-proportion distribution and check normal approximation conditions. |
| 3.3 Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion | Construct a one-proportion z interval with an estimated standard error. |
| 3.4 Justifying a Claim Based on a Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion | Interpret an interval and its confidence level and evaluate a population claim. |
| 3.5 Setting Up a Test for a Population Proportion | Define the population proportion, state hypotheses and check conditions for a one-proportion test. |
| 3.6 p-Values | Interpret a p-value as a conditional probability under the null hypothesis. |
| 3.7 Carrying Out a Test for a Population Proportion | Calculate a one-proportion z statistic, p-value and contextual conclusion. |
| 3.8 Potential Errors When Performing Tests | Distinguish Type I and Type II errors and explain power and significance level. |
| 3.9 Sampling Distributions for the Difference Between Sample Proportions | Describe the sampling distribution of a difference between independent sample proportions. |
| 3.10 Constructing a Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Two Population Proportions | Construct a two-proportion interval using an unpooled standard error. |
| 3.11 Justifying a Claim Based on a Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Two Population Proportions | Interpret the interval for a difference with a consistent subtraction order. |
| 3.12 Setting Up a Test for the Difference Between Two Population Proportions | State hypotheses and check conditions for a two-proportion test. |
| 3.13 Carrying Out a Test for the Difference Between Two Population Proportions | Calculate a two-proportion test using the pooled estimate under equal population proportions. |
| 3.14 Setting Up a Chi-Square Test for Homogeneity or Independence | Choose a chi-square test for homogeneity or independence and calculate expected counts. |
| 3.15 Carrying Out a Chi-Square Test for Homogeneity or Independence | Calculate a chi-square statistic, degrees of freedom, p-value and contextual conclusion. |
Inference conditions and standard errors for categorical data
Use random samples or a randomized design as required by the procedure. When sampling without replacement, check each sample is at most 10% of its population.
| Procedure | Large-count check | Standard error or expected counts |
|---|---|---|
| One-proportion interval | Observed successes and failures each at least 10 | SE = √(p̂(1 − p̂)/n). |
| One-proportion test | Expected np₀ and n(1 − p₀) each at least 10 | Null SD = √(p₀(1 − p₀)/n). |
| Two-proportion interval | At least 10 observed successes and failures in each independent sample | SE = √(p̂₁(1 − p̂₁)/n₁ + p̂₂(1 − p̂₂)/n₂). |
| Two-proportion equality test | Check expected successes and failures in both groups under pooled p̂ | p̂pool = (x₁ + x₂)/(n₁ + n₂); use it in both variance terms. |
| Chi-square independence or homogeneity | Every expected cell count at least 5 | Expected = row total × column total / grand total. |
| Chi-square statistic | Independent counts in categories | χ² = Σ(O − E)²/E; df = (rows − 1)(columns − 1). |
Common mistakes
Each of these loses points on questions you otherwise understand.
- Writing only “random” or “large sample” as a condition check. Identify the sampling method and show the relevant counts. CED printed p. 81.
- Treating 95% confidence as the probability that a fixed parameter moves into this computed interval. Confidence describes the long-run coverage of the method. CED pp. 81–82.
- Accepting the null after a large p-value. State that evidence is insufficient to reject it. CED p. 82.
- Checking observed rather than expected counts for a chi-square test. The condition is about every expected count being at least 5. CED p. 82.
6 practice questions with answers
Written by Ashore for this page, in the style of the multiple-choice section. Try each one before you open the answer.
Question 1 · 3.3
A random sample of 400 from a population above 10,000 gives 144 successes. What is the estimated standard error of p̂?
- A0.048
- B0.024
- C0.030
- D0.000576
Show the answer
B. p̂ = 144/400 = 0.36. SE = √(0.36 × 0.64/400) = √0.000576 = 0.024. There are 144 successes and 256 failures, and the sampling fraction is below 10%.
Question 2 · 3.3
For that sample, use p̂ = 0.36, SE = 0.024 and z* = 1.96. What is the approximate 95% confidence interval?
- A(0.336, 0.384)
- B(0.264, 0.456)
- C(0.350, 0.370)
- D(0.313, 0.407)
Show the answer
D. The margin is 1.96(0.024) = 0.04704. The endpoints are 0.31296 and 0.40704. The interval estimates the population proportion, not the proportion of individual outcomes inside a range.
Question 3 · 3.7
For a test of H₀: p = 0.40, a random sample of 200 from a large population gives 98 successes. What is the z statistic?
- A2.60
- B1.80
- C0.90
- D3.67
Show the answer
A. p̂ = 0.49. The null SD is √(0.40 × 0.60/200) ≈ 0.03464. z = (0.49 − 0.40)/0.03464 ≈ 2.60. Use p₀ in the test denominator, not p̂.
Question 4 · 3.13
Two independent samples have 45 successes out of 150 and 84 out of 210. What pooled proportion is used to test p₁ = p₂?
- A0.3500
- B0.3000
- C0.3583
- D0.4000
Show the answer
C. Pool the counts, not the percentages: (45 + 84)/(150 + 210) = 129/360 = 0.3583. A simple mean of 0.30 and 0.40 ignores the different sample sizes.
Question 5 · 3.14
A cell in a two-way table belongs to a row totaling 90 and a column totaling 80. The grand total is 240. What expected count is used under independence?
- A45
- B30
- C80
- D170
Show the answer
B. Expected count = 90 × 80/240 = 30. This is a model-based count under independence and can differ from the observed count in that cell.
Question 6 · 3.15
A chi-square independence test uses a table with 3 rows and 4 columns. What are its degrees of freedom?
- A12
- B7
- C9
- D6
Show the answer
D. df = (r − 1)(c − 1) = (3 − 1)(4 − 1) = 6. The formula reflects constraints imposed by the row and column totals.
How to study Unit 3
Sort problems by the number of populations, the response type and whether the goal is an interval or a test. Define p or p₁ − p₂ in words before writing a formula. Show the actual success/failure counts or expected cell counts in the condition check.
After calculating a p-value, compare it numerically with α and write a sentence about the population claim. Practice distinguishing a p-value interpretation from a confidence-level interpretation. For two groups, keep the same subtraction order in the hypotheses, statistic and conclusion.
Ashore's Stats course has a lesson and practice questions for every topic in this unit. The free starting check takes about 15 minutes and shows which ones are costing you points.
- AP Statistics: all 5 units, exam format and scores
- AP Statistics Unit 1: Exploring One-Variable Data and Collecting Data
- AP Statistics Unit 2: Probability, Random Variables, and Probability Distributions
- AP Statistics Unit 4: Inference for Quantitative Data: Means
- AP Statistics Unit 5: Regression Analysis
Find the Stats topics costing you points
The starting check takes about 15 minutes. Free, no card.
Starting check
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