AP Statistics

AP Statistics Unit 3 review: Inference for Categorical Data: Proportions

Unit 3 estimates and tests population proportions and compares categorical distributions. It is 15–25% of multiple choice in the revised course. Expect to choose an inference method, verify numerical conditions, calculate results and state a conclusion about the population rather than just the sample.

Unit 3 on the May 2027 exam

AP Statistics Unit 3 exam facts
2027 exam
Weight15–25% of the multiple-choice section
Exam dateTuesday, May 11, 2027, afternoon session
Multiple choice42 questions in 90 minutes, worth 50% of the exam score
Free response4 questions in 90 minutes, worth 50%. All answers are entered in Bluebook: two multi-focus questions, one inference question and a final multi-focus question.
CalculatorA graphing calculator with statistical capabilities is expected on both sections. Bluebook includes Desmos graphing. Nongraphing handheld calculators are not allowed in 2027.
Class timeAbout 30 class periods in College Board's pacing guide
2026 results17% of students scored a 5 on the whole exam, and about 62% scored 3 or higher

Sources: College Board's course and exam description, exam page, 2027 exam dates and score distributions.

What Unit 3 covers

College Board's course description splits the unit into 15 topics. The second column is what you should be able to do for each one.

AP Statistics Unit 3 topics
TopicWhat you should be able to do
3.1 EstimatorsExplain estimator bias and variability across repeated samples.
3.2 Sampling Distributions for Sample ProportionsCalculate the center and spread of a sample-proportion distribution and check normal approximation conditions.
3.3 Constructing a Confidence Interval for a Population ProportionConstruct a one-proportion z interval with an estimated standard error.
3.4 Justifying a Claim Based on a Confidence Interval for a Population ProportionInterpret an interval and its confidence level and evaluate a population claim.
3.5 Setting Up a Test for a Population ProportionDefine the population proportion, state hypotheses and check conditions for a one-proportion test.
3.6 p-ValuesInterpret a p-value as a conditional probability under the null hypothesis.
3.7 Carrying Out a Test for a Population ProportionCalculate a one-proportion z statistic, p-value and contextual conclusion.
3.8 Potential Errors When Performing TestsDistinguish Type I and Type II errors and explain power and significance level.
3.9 Sampling Distributions for the Difference Between Sample ProportionsDescribe the sampling distribution of a difference between independent sample proportions.
3.10 Constructing a Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Two Population ProportionsConstruct a two-proportion interval using an unpooled standard error.
3.11 Justifying a Claim Based on a Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Two Population ProportionsInterpret the interval for a difference with a consistent subtraction order.
3.12 Setting Up a Test for the Difference Between Two Population ProportionsState hypotheses and check conditions for a two-proportion test.
3.13 Carrying Out a Test for the Difference Between Two Population ProportionsCalculate a two-proportion test using the pooled estimate under equal population proportions.
3.14 Setting Up a Chi-Square Test for Homogeneity or IndependenceChoose a chi-square test for homogeneity or independence and calculate expected counts.
3.15 Carrying Out a Chi-Square Test for Homogeneity or IndependenceCalculate a chi-square statistic, degrees of freedom, p-value and contextual conclusion.

Inference conditions and standard errors for categorical data

Use random samples or a randomized design as required by the procedure. When sampling without replacement, check each sample is at most 10% of its population.

Inference conditions and standard errors for categorical data
ProcedureLarge-count checkStandard error or expected counts
One-proportion intervalObserved successes and failures each at least 10SE = √(p̂(1 − p̂)/n).
One-proportion testExpected np₀ and n(1 − p₀) each at least 10Null SD = √(p₀(1 − p₀)/n).
Two-proportion intervalAt least 10 observed successes and failures in each independent sampleSE = √(p̂₁(1 − p̂₁)/n₁ + p̂₂(1 − p̂₂)/n₂).
Two-proportion equality testCheck expected successes and failures in both groups under pooled p̂p̂pool = (x₁ + x₂)/(n₁ + n₂); use it in both variance terms.
Chi-square independence or homogeneityEvery expected cell count at least 5Expected = row total × column total / grand total.
Chi-square statisticIndependent counts in categoriesχ² = Σ(O − E)²/E; df = (rows − 1)(columns − 1).

Common mistakes

Each of these loses points on questions you otherwise understand.

  • Writing only “random” or “large sample” as a condition check. Identify the sampling method and show the relevant counts. CED printed p. 81.
  • Treating 95% confidence as the probability that a fixed parameter moves into this computed interval. Confidence describes the long-run coverage of the method. CED pp. 81–82.
  • Accepting the null after a large p-value. State that evidence is insufficient to reject it. CED p. 82.
  • Checking observed rather than expected counts for a chi-square test. The condition is about every expected count being at least 5. CED p. 82.

6 practice questions with answers

Written by Ashore for this page, in the style of the multiple-choice section. Try each one before you open the answer.

  1. Question 1 · 3.3

    A random sample of 400 from a population above 10,000 gives 144 successes. What is the estimated standard error of p̂?

    • A0.048
    • B0.024
    • C0.030
    • D0.000576
    Show the answer

    B. p̂ = 144/400 = 0.36. SE = √(0.36 × 0.64/400) = √0.000576 = 0.024. There are 144 successes and 256 failures, and the sampling fraction is below 10%.

  2. Question 2 · 3.3

    For that sample, use p̂ = 0.36, SE = 0.024 and z* = 1.96. What is the approximate 95% confidence interval?

    • A(0.336, 0.384)
    • B(0.264, 0.456)
    • C(0.350, 0.370)
    • D(0.313, 0.407)
    Show the answer

    D. The margin is 1.96(0.024) = 0.04704. The endpoints are 0.31296 and 0.40704. The interval estimates the population proportion, not the proportion of individual outcomes inside a range.

  3. Question 3 · 3.7

    For a test of H₀: p = 0.40, a random sample of 200 from a large population gives 98 successes. What is the z statistic?

    • A2.60
    • B1.80
    • C0.90
    • D3.67
    Show the answer

    A. p̂ = 0.49. The null SD is √(0.40 × 0.60/200) ≈ 0.03464. z = (0.49 − 0.40)/0.03464 ≈ 2.60. Use p₀ in the test denominator, not p̂.

  4. Question 4 · 3.13

    Two independent samples have 45 successes out of 150 and 84 out of 210. What pooled proportion is used to test p₁ = p₂?

    • A0.3500
    • B0.3000
    • C0.3583
    • D0.4000
    Show the answer

    C. Pool the counts, not the percentages: (45 + 84)/(150 + 210) = 129/360 = 0.3583. A simple mean of 0.30 and 0.40 ignores the different sample sizes.

  5. Question 5 · 3.14

    A cell in a two-way table belongs to a row totaling 90 and a column totaling 80. The grand total is 240. What expected count is used under independence?

    • A45
    • B30
    • C80
    • D170
    Show the answer

    B. Expected count = 90 × 80/240 = 30. This is a model-based count under independence and can differ from the observed count in that cell.

  6. Question 6 · 3.15

    A chi-square independence test uses a table with 3 rows and 4 columns. What are its degrees of freedom?

    • A12
    • B7
    • C9
    • D6
    Show the answer

    D. df = (r − 1)(c − 1) = (3 − 1)(4 − 1) = 6. The formula reflects constraints imposed by the row and column totals.

How to study Unit 3

Sort problems by the number of populations, the response type and whether the goal is an interval or a test. Define p or p₁ − p₂ in words before writing a formula. Show the actual success/failure counts or expected cell counts in the condition check.

After calculating a p-value, compare it numerically with α and write a sentence about the population claim. Practice distinguishing a p-value interpretation from a confidence-level interpretation. For two groups, keep the same subtraction order in the hypotheses, statistic and conclusion.

Ashore's Stats course has a lesson and practice questions for every topic in this unit. The free starting check takes about 15 minutes and shows which ones are costing you points.

Questions

Still have a question? support@tryashore.com

It is 15–25% of the multiple-choice section, which is half the exam score. This is not a fixed share of the whole exam: free-response questions can combine units. Suggested pacing is 30 class periods.

Find the Stats topics costing you points

The starting check takes about 15 minutes. Free, no card.

Starting check

SAT Math · 1 of 5

Calculator allowed

A jacket's price is increased by 20% and then the new price is decreased by 20%. The final price is what percent of the original price?
  • A96%96\%
  • B100%100\%
  • C104%104\%
  • D80%80\%